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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."